Were you good,
or just lucky?

Whether your Fantasy Premier League season was skill or luck. For every gameweek it puts the points your team scored beside the points it should have scored, and names your luckiest and unluckiest weeks.

Open your Points page on the FPL website. The number in the address is your entry ID (also called Team ID): fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/<ID>/event/<gameweek>.

Every gameweek your players generated expected points (xP), based on how many shots they took, the chances they created, and how exposed their defence was. We compare that against what they actually scored. The gap is luck.

Above zero, your players finished above their underlying chances. Below zero, they kept missing sitters and shipping stoppage-time goals.

xG and xA are the official Premier League / Opta numbers, applied with FPL's per-position scoring (10 per goal for keepers, 6 for defenders, 5 for midfielders, 4 for forwards; 3 per assist).

xGC drives the clean-sheet probability and the −1 per 2 conceded penalty for keepers and defenders.

Bonus, defensive contributions, cards, saves, own goals, penalty saves and misses are taken as realised: they don't have a clean expected counterpart in the public data.

We sum the players you locked in at the gameweek deadline, weighted by their multiplier (captain ×2, triple captain ×3, bench ×0). That leaves out automatic substitutions, when a bench player comes on for a starter who did not play, and transfer hits, the −4s for extra transfers.

Both are left out of both sides of the comparison, so they cancel in the luck number. Mixing them in would contaminate it.