fpl nemesis · luck

Were you good,
or just lucky?

the football gods kept score. so did we.

How this works

What's "luck", exactly?

Every gameweek your players generated expected points (xP) — based on how many shots they took, the chances they created, and how exposed their defence was. We compare that against what they actually scored. The gap is luck.

Above zero — your guys finished above their underlying chances. Below zero — they kept missing sitters and shipping stoppage-time goals.

What goes into xP?
  • xG, xA are the official Premier League / Opta numbers, applied with FPL's per-position scoring (10 per goal for keepers, 6 for defenders, 5 for mids, 4 for forwards; 3 per assist).
  • xGC drives the clean-sheet probability and the "−1 per 2 conceded" penalty for keepers and defenders.
  • Bonus, defensive contribution, cards, saves, own goals, penalty saves and misses are taken as realised — they don't have a clean expected counterpart in the public data.
Why doesn't "realised" match my FPL season total?

We sum the players you locked in at the gameweek deadline, weighted by their multiplier (captain ×2, triple captain ×3, bench ×0). That deliberately excludes:

  • Auto-substitutions — when a starter doesn't play and a bench player slots in for them at multiplier 1.
  • Transfer hits — the −4s for extra transfers.

Both are absent from both sides of our calc, so they cancel in the luck number. Mixing them in would contaminate the comparison.